Weekly Update - Just Tariffic!

3 min Read ⏰

Trade wars aren’t new. But the current chatter around tariffs feels… different. Bigger. Louder. Dumber maybe?

As we head deeper into a new Trump term in the US, and global economies try to shake off the shock of the last five months, tariffs are back in the headlines. And whether you’re running a business, investing long-term, or just trying to make sense of your grocery bill, this stuff matters. Clearly, as it has consumed our media completely in recent weeks.

As some slight respite, here’s your alternative tariff take in 3 acts.

What the hell is “reciprocal” anyway?

"Reciprocal" sounds great in a headline. But it’s rarely that simple in trade.

Reciprocal (adjective): given, felt, or done in return; mutual.

The current US Government’s argument is essentially this: “If we charge 2% on your goods, but you charge 15% on ours, that’s unfair. Let’s match it.”

On the surface, that sounds reasonable. But in practice, it’s chaos. Why? Because tariffs don’t exist in a vacuum. Trade deals come with decades of backroom haggling, regional economic alliances, and domestic subsidies. Matching percentages doesn’t mean matching impact. Add in the fact that these percentages are almost made up (see the ‘equation’ below) and, well chaos reigns!

Tariffs are meant to be a scalpel. They’re being wielded here like a sledgehammer.

Ferris Bueller knew

Let’s take a break for the culture.

Remember the economics teacher in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off? That monotone, dull voice. “Anyone? Anyone? Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act?” That line isn’t a throwaway joke. It’s a real reference to one of the most damaging tariff moves in US history.

Back in the 1930s, the US passed Smoot-Hawley to protect domestic jobs and farmers. Instead, it kicked off a global retaliation loop and deepened the Great Depression. Unintended consequences at their finest. And not wholly irrelevant to the current situation.

That scene is funny because it’s true. Tariffs sound boring until they ruin your economy. Or show up in a coming-of-age classic comedy.

Uncertainty is the enemy

Here’s the kicker: it’s not even the tariffs that are doing the damage right now. It’s the uncertainty about them.

Will these threats turn into real policies? Are they permanent or a short-term bargaining chip? And if they are short-term, what impact can they really have? It can take years for any major company to shift their production - construction, process design, supply chain, staffing, training - and how can these commitments be made with the threat of rollbacks potentially happening within weeks…

This is where it gets messy.

If you're an investor, uncertainty destroys confidence. If you're a business, it freezes your hiring or expansion plans. And if you’re just trying to plan a budget or understand inflation trends, it adds another wildcard variable.

We saw this during the last US-China trade clash—supply chains took hits, prices rose, and sentiment cratered. And while some of those tariffs stuck, many were walked back or quietly softened.

So what’s the endgame here? No one knows. And that, again, is exactly the problem.

Meanwhile, I see red.

_{Image credit - https://x.com/bryan_johnson}

My take? If you’re thinking long-term—whether that’s as an investor, business owner, or just a curious observer—watch the tariff noise, but don’t overreact. Trends matter more than tweets.

And maybe rewatch Ferris Bueller. That teacher was onto something.

^{NOTE: I am not a financial advisor, planner or have any formal healthcare education. &Prosper is simply a way for me to share my own journey and offer resources I have found useful. With this, I am starting from near zero and I hope to show that anyone can significantly improve their health and financial wellbeing.}